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This was a busy weekend, filled with stress-watching football, thanks to both the Michigan Wolverines and Detroit Lions taking me on a true roller coaster of emotions. Leading into the weekend, though, was my friend Ken hosting his second Collectors Night on Friday.

It’s a trade night with a trivia contest (questions from yours truly) and box breaks, but most importantly, it’s a great way to get together with fellow collectors and just talk cards in a smaller space than a huge card show.

I made some sales (mostly Marvel slabs I’d previously had a hard time selling, but pop culture cards are moving right now) and made a trade with Ken as well. That included finally picking up a rookie football card that I sold along with some other prominent rookies when I was a teenager and even wrote in a school journaling project back then that I’d probably regret it. I was right, and it only took me a few decades to get this one back in my possession.

Now I just need to find Joe Montana, John Elway and Jerry Rice rookie cards, all at reasonable prices. I’ll give myself another decade.

In this issue you'll find:

  • Auction highlights

  • News in the hobby

  • Comparing WAR rankings with card values

  • Mel Blount’s rookie card and player profile

  • ICYMI

  • Recent Vintage Card Voyage videos

Let’s get into it.

Auction Highlights

In order of closing date:

Hunt Auctions Internet Auction (ending on September 16)

REA September 2026 Auction (ending on September 20)

Other active auctions:

Sterling Sports Auctions (ends on September 24)

Sirius Sports Card Auction (ends on September 24)

Clean Sweep Champions Auction (ends on October 14)

Vintage HOF Rookie Card: Mel Blount

He’s one of a number of people in the history of the NFL to have a rule named after them, or at least inspired by them. His physical play as a defensive back led to the rule about defensive backs only being able to make contact with receivers within five yards of the line of scrimmage.

Mel Blount - DB

  • 5-time Pro Bowler

  • 4-time All-Pro (two first-team and two second-team selections)

  • 4-time Super Bowl winner

  • 1975 Defensive Player of the Year

  • Career AV (Approximate Value) - 128

1975 Topps #12

Grade

PSA Pop Count

SGC Pop Count

BVG Pop Count

10

32

0

TBD

9

228

17

TBD

8

518

51

TBD

7

309

61

TBD

Eight of the 10 purchases was via auction, and the average price came out to be $63.52.

Hobby Thoughts: WAR vs. Rookie Card Pricing

Chris Sewall, who took the Drawn to Cards Q&A late last year, recently had a video where he talked about how perception drastically impacts card values. One of the examples he used was Mickey Mantle vs. Willie Mays, showing a comparison of their statistics and accomplishments, and how Mays was pretty clearly a better player than Mantle, but the perception of Mantle has driven prices of his cards to outshine Mays. The example he used was the 1951 Bowman rookie cards of both, where Mantle’s values are typically about twice that of Mays.

That got me thinking about WAR, as in Wins Above Replacement. It’s a statistic that’s supposed to determine how many wins a player added to the team(s) he played with above what an average replacement player would’ve contributed. WAR is one of the statistics where Mays outshone Mantle. According to Baseball Reference, Mays had a career WAR of 156.2 (fifth all-time) compared to Mantle’s 110.3 (21st all-time).

What I wondered is, is career WAR of any value when it comes to determining rookie card prices? WAR should, presumably, help determine how great a player was during his career (assuming, of course, you trust WAR as a valuable statistic), and the greatest players are typically the ones most sought-after by collectors (but, yes, “typically” is doing a lot of work that in sentence).

Instead of using the all-time top players ranked by WAR, since card values vary wildly throughout the 20th century, as do card companies, I’ll instead focus on rookie cards from the 1950s to the 1970s, since those decades have cards coming out consistently and are primarily dominated by one company, Topps.

1950s Player

Career WAR

Rookie Card

Collector Grade PSA Avg. Value

Willie Mays

156.2

1951 Bowman

$16,451

Hank Aaron

143.2

1954 Topps

$9,009

Mickey Mantle

110.3

1951 Bowman

$47,377

Frank Robinson

107.2

1957 Topps

$483

Eddie Mathews

96.0

1952 Topps

$11,145

1960s Player

Career WAR

Rookie Card

Collector Grade PSA Avg. Value

Tom Seaver

109.9

1967 Topps

$2,194

Joe Morgan

100.6

1965 Topps

$188

Carl Yastrzemski

96.4

1960 Topps

$669

Phil Niekro

95.9

1964 Topps

$191

Steve Carlton

90.2

1965 Topps

$320

1970s Player

Career WAR

Rookie Card

Collector Grade PSA Avg. Value

Mike Schmidt

106.9

1973 Topps

$672

Bert Blyleven

94.5

1971 Topps

$333

George Brett

88.6

1975 Topps

$441

Robin Yount

77.4

1975 Topps

$214

Ozzie Smith

76.9

1979 Topps

$155

Methodology:

  • WAR was determined using Baseball Reference

  • Average value was determined based on the three most recent sales of PSA collector grade rookie cards

This is admittedly a small sample size, but it does demonstrate the variability in rookie card value separate from how great a player’s career statistics are.

In the 1950s grouping, the difference between Eddie Mathews and Hank Aaron from a WAR perspective is similar to the difference between Mantle and Mays. I think it’s safe to say that no one would say that Eddie Mathews had a better career than Hank Aaron, or that he’s more popular than Aaron, but because Mathews’ rookie card is a high-number (i.e., rare) card in one of the most desirable baseball card sets ever, his card is worth 23.7% more than Aaron’s. The two cards’ PSA pop counts (973 for Mathews’ card and 7,774 for Aaron’s card) gives you an indication of how rare Mathews’ is, relatively speaking.

Meanwhile, Frank Robinson’s rookie card value continues to baffle me, especially since it’s not like people have collectively decided the hobby doesn’t like the 1957 Topps set. Or that he wasn’t a nice guy. It’s just that, in most people’s minds, he doesn’t compare to the greats like Mantle, Mays and Aaron, and since they’re the GOATs, he’s apparently not, thus he’s not as sought after. Of course, if you want to collect him, that means it’s much more inexpensive to do so relative to the decade’s other greats.

In the 1960s, Tom Seaver’s rookie card is also a high number card AND he’s more popular in the hobby than Joe Morgan, so even though their WAR is only separated by about nine wins, Seaver’s card is nearly 12 times as valuable as Morgan’s. Interestingly, Morgan’s rookie card has a pop count of 5,948 and Seaver’s pop count is 4,268, so while Seaver’s card is a high number, it was likely more widely distributed than, for instance, the 1952 Topps cards, or more people kept cards from the late 1960s.

In the 1970s, the values are much closer across the board, while also being mostly reflective of the players’ WAR ranking. The difficulty in getting higher grades in the 1971 Topps set and the popularity of the 1975 Topps set may have also contributed to the respective values of Blyleven, Brett and Yount’s cards.

I’m admittedly a numbers guy who thinks that card value should be largely determined by a player’s career statistics, but that’s not the reality of the card market. There are a number of factors that determine a card’s value and while career statistics is certainly one of them, since desirable players generally tend to have better career statistics, they aren’t the overarching factor. And that’s something I continually have to adjust to.

Does a player’s career statistics ever factor into whom you decide to collect?

ICYMI

Vintage Card Voyage: Recent Videos

This is the YouTube channel I co-host with my friend Ken.

Subscribe for future issues, share with those you think would enjoy the newsletter, and please also check out and subscribe to Vintage Card Voyage.

Thanks for reading.

Marc

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