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I had the opportunity to set up at a card show again this weekend, getting home just in time to watch the Michigan-Duke men’s basketball game (sigh). While that game left a sour taste in my mouth, the card show did not.

For one thing, it was PACKED. I’ve set up at this show multiple times and also attended the show for a few years and this had easily both the most number of tables and the most number of attendees. Yes, most of the tables were filled with TCG, but it’s still great to see the sheer number of people interested in the hobby - and some of those interested in TCG can become interested in sports cards, too.

I was also able to see a fantastic collection of 1960s and early ‘70s cards up close and personal, including multiple Nolan Ryan and Pete Rose rookies, along with binder pages filled with Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays cards - and most of them were in surprisingly good condition.

Most importantly, though, is the feeling of community I experienced. I consistently struck up conversations with people who came up to the table my friend Ken and I were at (including a friend from high school I hadn’t seen in years), chatting about favorite players, their return to the hobby, cards they were looking for, what have you.

Because Ken and I have made a lot of inroads into the hobby locally in the last couple of years, there are always numerous people we know, which makes the shows as much a social experience as anything else. That’s something I can only hope will continue.

In this issue you'll find:

Auction highlights
News in the hobby
Donnie Shell’s rookie card and player profile
Comparing rookie and second-year card values
Recent Vintage Card Voyage videos

Let’s get into it.

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Auction Highlights

In order of closing date (prices as of Sunday evening PT):

Elite Collectibles (ending February 24)

⚾ 1973 Topps #1 Ruth/Aaron/Mays (Edges, Corner, Indent) Raw - $11.50

⚾ 1967 Topps #244 HR Leaders Aaron/Allen/Mays (Corners, Edges) Raw - $15

🏈 1976 Topps #100 Franco Harris PSA 8 - $21

Huggins & Scott (ending February 26)

🏀 1971-72 Topps Basketball #100 Lew Alcindor PSA 3 - $60

⚾ 1950 Callahan Hall of Fame Lou Gehrig PSA 8 - $100

🏈 1978 Topps Football Unopened Cello Pack Pair, w/ GAI 8 (Lee Roy Selmon on top) and PSA 9 - $120

Sirius Sports Cards Auction (ending February 26)

⚾ 1960 Fleer #10 Tris Speaker PSA 8 - $9

⚾ 1968 Topps #3 RBI Leaders (Cepeda, Clemente, Aaron) CGC 2 - $12

🏈 1957 Topps #68 Yale Lary PSA 7.5 - $16

News Briefs

💰 The 10 Most Expensive Card Sales of All Time

⚾ Remembering Hobby Legend Mr. Mint as Topps Turns 75

💰 Fresh Ruth Ball, Williams Bat, Vintage Cards Among Huggins & Scott Lots

🏀 Soul Power: 7 Rookie Cards of ABA’s All-Time Scoring Average Leaders

⚾ 13 Great Topps Baseball Leader Cards of the 1960s

Vintage HOF Rookie Card: Donnie Shell

A crucial part of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ legendary “Steel Curtain” defense, while Shell’s rookie season was in 1974, he didn’t have a rookie card until 1979.

Donnie Shell - S

HOF Induction in 2020

Standout Stats:

5-time Pro Bowler and 3-time first-team All-Pro
Had five or more interceptions in six consecutive seasons
4-time Super Bowl champ
Played more than 200 games with the Steelers
Career AV (Approximate Value) - 118

1979 Topps #411

Grade	PSA Pop Count	SGC Pop Count	BVG Pop Count
10	4	0	0
9	83	5	0
8	385	18	8
7	202	21	10

This is obviously just a moment in time, but it’s interesting how the graph progresses: two sales in the 20s, two sales in the teens, two sales in the 20s, two sales in the teens, and then two sales in the 30s. Meanwhile, the average sits at $24.24.

Hobby Thoughts: Comparing Rookie Card Prices to Second-Year Card Prices

Second-year cards can be great for collectors who don’t want to pay the premium for a player’s rookie card, but still want an early-career item.

I had this theory that the value of a second-year card relative to a rookie card can tell you a lot about how the player is viewed in the hobby. I thought about it like a movie’s box office the opening weekend vs. the following weekend, where the movies that are more popular won’t have as much of a drop-off, percentage-wise, that second weekend.

I decided to test that theory for Hall of Fame baseball rookie cards in the 1970s, using the most recent five-card averages for PSA collector-grade cards (courtesy of Card Ladder), to see if the more popular players actually do have less of a drop-off.

My assumption was that there would be about a 75% average drop-off from rookie card to second-year card, with the more popular players falling closer to 50%. Popularity is, of course, incredibly subjective, but my sense is that the following players in the decade are the most popular ones in the hobby: Mike Schmidt, George Brett, and Dave Winfield.

While the overall average percentage drop (73.3%,) was close to my overall guess, where certain players fell surprised me.

Jack Morris, for instance, was not on my bingo card for smallest percentage difference (the opposite, in fact), and I didn’t necessarily see Gary Carter, Jim Rice or Carlton Fisk with small percentage differences, either. But, one thing all four of them share is that their rookie cards are ones they share with other players, which could mean their second-year cards are more desirable for collectors who want their first individual cards.

Along with solo vs. multiple rookie cards, high-number cards played a part as well, as both Mike Schmidt and Carlton Fisk’s rookie cards are within their respective set’s high number series - and that likely contributed to the unusually high disparity for Schmidt’s.

Meanwhile, the average drop for my picks for the three more popular players landed at …. 73.3% (the same as the overall percentage), so I was clearly off on that prediction. That said, the percentage gets skewed by the high cost of the Schmidt rookie, whose high number has much to do with that hike in price.

What About One Grade Up?

I also decided to look at PSA-graded cards one grade up (8s for the 1970s, along with a 9 for Ozzie Smith’s 1980 Topps card), to see what that did to the percentage difference. I assumed the difference would increase, because, as grades go up, cards become more desirable, and rookie cards are typically the most desirable of the desirable cards.

In fact, that was the case, as the overall percentage gap between rookie cards and second-year cards widened to 78.6%, while the percentage for my more popular picks actually fell a smidge, to 72.7%.

Five players (Ozzie Smith, Goose Gossage, Dave Parker, George Brett, and Jack Morris) had their percentage gaps actually drop as their grades increased, Brett’s doing so the most, from a 52.2% gap for collector grade to 38.1% for 8s. The largest increase, meanwhile, happened to Gary Carter, whose percentage gap rose from 39.9% to 66.2% as the card grades increased.

I may continue to dig into this for other decades and sports, and I’m curious to get your thoughts on these findings and if you’ve purposely sought out second-year cards instead of rookies.

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